Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 12.910285 14.756024 16.757140 19.085965 21.719775 24.604231 28.000751
2024-10-27 9.577285 11.909297 14.641415 18.071378 22.254998 27.184443 33.425683
2024-11-03 8.406347 11.026063 14.248921 18.491774 23.915993 30.602727 39.454805
2024-11-10 7.508084 10.322590 13.937153 18.897824 25.504981 33.975681 45.629664
2024-11-17 6.602143 9.460876 13.273316 18.699290 26.188507 36.121870 50.250258
2024-11-24 5.810153 8.649100 12.568367 18.334855 26.556672 37.803026 54.287196
2024-12-01 5.271208 8.124484 12.189611 18.353985 27.405170 40.135000 59.305147
2024-12-08 4.893216 7.788527 12.035312 18.656633 28.644493 43.053596 65.294980
2024-12-15 4.522053 7.421121 11.792301 18.788986 29.614732 45.610484 70.879176
2024-12-22 4.126923 6.975356 11.385750 18.625601 30.103617 47.454875 75.476338
2024-12-29 3.854578 6.697876 11.211202 18.796820 31.098999 50.095202 81.407628
2025-01-05 3.699881 6.597461 11.304886 19.392245 32.787258 53.881563 89.316418
2025-01-12 3.395852 6.224378 10.934334 19.216574 33.243434 55.795930 94.442944
2025-01-19 2.966944 5.596059 10.087363 18.177606 32.198008 55.226886 95.506748
2025-01-26 2.834206 5.480700 10.103422 18.606320 33.638249 58.788615 103.563068
2025-02-02 2.708611 5.366235 10.109624 19.012749 35.057723 62.384692 111.867467
2025-02-09 2.503573 5.084207 9.792584 18.813722 35.391725 64.139713 117.097471
2025-02-16 2.294600 4.775511 9.401551 18.446959 35.392387 65.302853 121.339370
2025-02-23 2.155603 4.591253 9.226988 18.466270 36.090083 67.718403 127.915094
2025-03-02 2.063210 4.492004 9.205358 18.770651 37.329678 71.160928 136.512367
2025-03-09 1.957279 4.355538 9.100372 18.903778 38.248298 74.060403 144.258406
2025-03-16 1.826586 4.155618 8.854268 18.739444 38.579287 75.882987 150.086839
2025-03-23 1.741662 4.045824 8.780375 18.911656 39.571481 78.985113 158.469171